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Through games of Mar 11, 2018.


Penn St.

Conference:B10
Expected RPI:77.0
Current RPI:77
Expected SOS:74
Current SOS:74
Current Record:21-13
Expected Record:21-13
Current Conf Record:11-10
Expected Conf Record:11-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:3-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-0
Current OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC RPI:127
Expected OOC SOS:266



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-1377.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Penn St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Campbell (267.0)BSthH86-75W100%0.0
11-12Fairleigh Dickinson (254.0)NECH81-57W100%0.0
11-15Montana (76.0)BSkyH70-57W100%0.0
11-17Columbia (316.0)IvyH79-65W100%0.0
11-20Pittsburgh (217.0)ACCN54-85W100%0.0
11-21Texas A&M (29.0)SECN87-98L0%0.0
11-24Oral Roberts (255.0)SumH86-48W100%0.0
11-29North Carolina St. (64.0)ACCA85-78L0%0.0
12-2Iowa (157.0)B10A73-77W100%0.0
12-4Wisconsin (114.0)B10H63-64L0%0.0
12-9George Washington (195.0)A10H74-54W100%0.0
12-17George Mason (201.0)A10A54-72W100%0.0
12-19Binghamton (320.0)AEH80-65W100%0.0
12-22Rider (69.0)MAACH70-71L0%0.0
12-30Coppin St. (343.0)MEACH88-43W100%0.0
1-2Maryland (74.0)B10A75-69L0%0.0
1-5Northwestern (168.0)B10H78-63W100%0.0
1-9Indiana (125.0)B10A74-70L0%0.0
1-12Nebraska (56.0)B10H76-74W100%0.0
1-15Minnesota (171.0)B10H84-95L0%0.0
1-20Northwestern (168.0)B10A70-61L0%0.0
1-25Ohio St. (20.0)B10A79-82W100%0.0
1-27Rutgers (203.0)B10H60-43W100%0.0
1-31Michigan St. (14.0)B10A76-68L0%0.0
2-3Iowa (157.0)B10H82-58W100%0.0
2-7Maryland (74.0)B10H74-70W100%0.0
2-11Illinois (181.0)B10A52-74W100%0.0
2-15Ohio St. (20.0)B10H79-56W100%0.0
2-18Purdue (9.0)B10A76-73L0%0.0
2-21Michigan (12.0)B10H63-72L0%0.0
2-25Nebraska (56.0)B10A76-64L0%0.0
3-1Northwestern (168.0)B10N65-57W100%0.0
3-2Ohio St. (20.0)B10N68-69W100%0.0
3-3Purdue (9.0)B10N78-70L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Penn St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Penn St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Penn St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Penn St.B1026.2626.2659.0359.034.744.74
Ohio St.B104.944.9482.7682.763.233.23
NorthwesternB104.944.9446.4346.43-0.35-0.35
MarylandB103.583.5858.6258.620.620.62
IowaB103.563.5645.1645.16-0.34-0.34
PurdueB103.563.5681.2581.252.222.22
NebraskaB103.493.4970.0070.001.401.40
MichiganB102.362.3678.7978.791.361.36
RutgersB102.272.2743.7543.75-0.28-0.28
MinnesotaB102.202.2045.1645.16-0.21-0.21
WisconsinB102.202.2043.7543.75-0.28-0.28
IndianaB102.132.1350.0050.000.000.00
Michigan St.B102.112.1187.5087.501.581.58
IllinoisB102.112.1143.3343.33-0.28-0.28
George MasonA101.541.5450.0050.000.000.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC1.541.5439.2939.29-0.33-0.33
George WashingtonA101.541.5446.8846.88-0.10-0.10
MontanaBSky1.521.5280.0080.000.910.91
Oral RobertsSum1.521.5229.6329.63-0.62-0.62
PittsburghACC1.521.5225.8125.81-0.73-0.73
North Carolina St.ACC1.491.4964.5264.520.430.43
BinghamtonAE1.491.4932.1432.14-0.53-0.53
Coppin St.MEAC1.491.4916.1316.13-1.01-1.01
RiderMAAC1.491.4970.0070.000.600.60
CampbellBSth1.471.4748.1548.15-0.05-0.05
ColumbiaIvy1.471.4728.0028.00-0.65-0.65
Texas A&MSEC1.471.4761.2961.290.330.33
North CarolinaACC0.180.1871.4371.430.080.08
Chicago St.WAC0.180.183.333.33-0.17-0.17
Stony BrookAE0.170.1738.7138.71-0.04-0.04
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.170.1743.7543.75-0.02-0.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.170.1748.4848.48-0.01-0.01
ButlerBE0.160.1660.6160.610.030.03
LouisvilleACC0.160.1660.6160.610.030.03
Sacred HeartNEC0.150.1530.0030.00-0.06-0.06
Boston CollegeACC0.140.1455.8855.880.020.02
Georgia TechACC0.140.1440.6240.62-0.03-0.03
Notre DameACC0.140.1457.5857.580.020.02
ClemsonACC0.140.1471.8871.880.060.06
BrownIvy0.130.1338.4638.46-0.03-0.03
RadfordBSth0.120.1262.5062.500.030.03
UMBCAE0.120.1267.7467.740.040.04
Delaware St.MEAC0.120.126.676.67-0.10-0.10
DePaulBE0.120.1235.4835.48-0.03-0.03
CreightonBE0.120.1264.5264.520.030.03
North DakotaBSky0.120.1233.3333.33-0.04-0.04
SyracuseACC0.120.1260.6160.610.020.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.120.1236.6736.67-0.03-0.03
La SalleA100.120.1240.6240.62-0.02-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.120.1251.6151.610.000.00
DukeACC0.110.1178.7978.790.070.07
ValparaisoMVC0.110.1143.3343.33-0.02-0.02
Southern UtahBSky0.110.1136.6736.67-0.03-0.03
Miami FLACC0.110.1170.9770.970.050.05
MassachusettsA100.110.1139.3939.39-0.02-0.02
VCUA100.110.1154.5554.550.010.01
LongwoodBSth0.100.1013.3313.33-0.08-0.08
PrincetonIvy0.100.1042.8642.86-0.01-0.01
HarvardIvy0.100.1056.6756.670.010.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.100.1051.5251.520.000.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.100.1037.9337.93-0.02-0.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.100.1080.0080.000.060.06
HartfordAE0.100.1058.0658.060.020.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.100.1053.3353.330.010.01
Loyola MDPat0.100.1026.6726.67-0.05-0.05
BryantNEC0.100.109.689.68-0.08-0.08
Central ConnecticutNEC0.100.1043.7543.75-0.01-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.100.1067.6567.650.030.03
The CitadelSC0.100.1027.5927.59-0.04-0.04
MaristMAAC0.090.0919.3519.35-0.06-0.06
Saint LouisA100.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
StanfordP120.090.0954.5554.550.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.090.0935.4835.48-0.03-0.03
St. BonaventureA100.090.0978.1278.120.050.05
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.090.0951.6151.610.000.00
AlabamaSEC0.090.0955.8855.880.010.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.090.0926.6726.67-0.04-0.04
William & MaryCAA0.090.0958.6258.620.020.02
FairfieldMAAC0.090.0951.5251.520.000.00
Virginia TechACC0.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
Florida St.ACC0.090.0964.5264.520.030.03
DuquesneA100.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
ArizonaP120.090.0979.4179.410.050.05
TennesseeSEC0.090.0975.7675.760.050.05
FordhamA100.090.0929.0329.03-0.04-0.04
RichmondA100.090.0937.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
CornellIvy0.080.0840.7440.74-0.02-0.02
AlbanyAE0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
MaineAE0.080.0813.3313.33-0.06-0.06
YaleIvy0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
DenverSum0.080.0846.4346.43-0.01-0.01
LibertyBSth0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
Fort WayneSum0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
St. Francis PANEC0.080.0857.1457.140.010.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.080.0836.3636.36-0.02-0.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.080.0842.8642.86-0.01-0.01
High PointBSth0.080.0840.7440.74-0.01-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.080.0827.5927.59-0.03-0.03
WagnerNEC0.070.0770.0070.000.030.03
NavyPat0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
ConnecticutAmer0.070.0743.7543.75-0.01-0.01
New HampshireAE0.070.0727.5927.59-0.03-0.03
UMass LowellAE0.070.0737.9337.93-0.02-0.02
IonaMAAC0.070.0760.6160.610.020.02
Montana St.BSky0.070.0736.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Oklahoma St.B120.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
StetsonASun0.070.0728.5728.57-0.03-0.03
East CarolinaAmer0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.070.0714.2914.29-0.05-0.05
Seton HallBE0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
OklahomaB120.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
Texas TechB120.070.0772.7372.730.030.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.070.0716.6716.67-0.05-0.05
OhioMAC0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
MissouriSEC0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.070.0770.0070.000.030.03
HowardMEAC0.070.0725.8125.81-0.03-0.03
Appalachian St.SB0.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.070.0788.2488.240.050.05
KansasB120.070.0779.4179.410.040.04
Miami OHMAC0.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.070.0768.7568.750.030.03
Texas SouthernSWAC0.070.0744.1244.12-0.01-0.01
West VirginiaB120.070.0770.5970.590.030.03
SouthernSWAC0.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
XavierBE0.070.0784.8584.850.050.05
Long Beach St.BW0.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
VirginiaACC0.070.0793.9493.940.060.06
LSUSEC0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.070.0732.3532.35-0.02-0.02
DrakeMVC0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
DavidsonA100.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
MarquetteBE0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.070.0769.7069.700.030.03
DartmouthIvy0.060.0623.0823.08-0.03-0.03
PennIvy0.060.0674.1974.190.030.03
ArmyPat0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
ColgatePat0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
North Dakota St.Sum0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
South DakotaSum0.050.0573.3373.330.020.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Western IllinoisSum0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
WinthropBSth0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
VermontAE0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
UNLVMWC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
PepperdineWCC0.050.0516.1316.13-0.03-0.03
USC UpstateASun0.050.0510.7110.71-0.04-0.04
Kansas St.B120.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
OaklandHorz0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
NJITASun0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
BucknellPat0.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
ManhattanMAAC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
MonmouthMAAC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.050.0513.3313.33-0.03-0.03
Portland St.BSky0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.050.0516.6716.67-0.03-0.03
UC IrvineBW0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
ProvidenceBE0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.01-0.01
KentuckySEC0.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
North TexasCUSA0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
St. John'sBE0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
UCFAmer0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
UTSACUSA0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
UC RiversideBW0.050.0524.1424.14-0.02-0.02
AuburnSEC0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
Alabama A&MSWAC0.040.049.689.68-0.04-0.04
JacksonvilleASun0.040.0437.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.040.0425.8125.81-0.02-0.02
ColoradoP120.040.0453.1253.120.000.00
DaytonA100.040.0445.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.040.0453.3353.330.000.00
Iowa St.B120.040.0441.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.040.0480.6580.650.030.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.040.0436.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.040.0478.1278.120.030.03
TempleAmer0.040.0453.1253.120.000.00
UABCUSA0.040.0458.0658.060.010.01
North FloridaASun0.040.0436.6736.67-0.01-0.01
UCLAP120.040.0465.6265.620.010.01
IUPUIHorz0.040.0432.1432.14-0.02-0.02
LipscombASun0.040.0468.9768.970.020.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.040.0430.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.040.0446.4346.43-0.00-0.00
VillanovaBE0.030.0388.2488.240.020.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.030.0344.4444.44-0.00-0.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Little RockSB0.030.0320.0020.00-0.02-0.02
Missouri St.MVC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
TulsaAmer0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Holy CrossPat0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
DrexelCAA0.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.020.0258.6258.620.000.00
Georgia St.SB0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
HofstraCAA0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
IdahoBSky0.020.0268.9768.970.010.01
Idaho St.BSky0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Indiana St.MVC0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.020.0269.7069.700.010.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.020.0283.3383.330.020.02
SienaMAAC0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.020.0231.2531.25-0.01-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.020.0227.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
WashingtonP120.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
Weber St.BSky0.020.0260.7160.710.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.020.0220.0020.00-0.01-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.020.0275.7675.760.010.01
CincinnatiAmer0.020.0288.2488.240.020.02
FloridaSEC0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.020.0224.2424.24-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.020.0232.1432.14-0.01-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
GeorgiaSEC0.020.0254.5554.550.000.00
LehighPat0.020.0251.7251.720.000.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.020.0232.0032.00-0.01-0.01
MississippiSEC0.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
Northern IowaMVC0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Northern KentuckyHorz0.020.0268.9768.970.010.01
OregonP120.020.0264.7164.710.010.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.020.0245.4545.45-0.00-0.00
South CarolinaSEC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
TowsonCAA0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
UMKCWAC0.020.0227.5927.59-0.01-0.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.020.0277.4277.420.010.01
USCP120.020.0267.6567.650.010.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
VanderbiltSEC0.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
VMISC0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
BaylorB120.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
Fresno St.MWC0.020.0263.3363.330.010.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
Green BayHorz0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.020.0210.7110.71-0.02-0.02
James MadisonCAA0.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01
LafayettePat0.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Central MichiganMAC0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
DetroitHorz0.020.0220.0020.00-0.01-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
TexasB120.020.0257.5857.580.000.00